The BIG winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary is the Democrats

"Trump's a loser"

Jan 24, 2024

Donald Trump is going to lose in November—assuming he’s even on the ballot. That’s one of the big takeaways from the New Hampshire GOP primary where Trump was the winner in name only. In fact, as was shouted out by the crowd during Nikki Haley’s post-election speech: “Trump’s a loser!”

This doesn’t mean winning in 2024 won’t take a lot of work. But It’s important to note just how weak Trump is as a candidate based on what we’ve seen with the New Hampshire primary results and in the days leading up to it.

--The New Hampshire results: The polls in the days leading up to the primary had Trump up 22 to 27 points. In reality, Trump won by half of that with just over a 10 point margin of victory with 54 percent of the vote to Haley’s 43 percent. In contrast, in the 2016 New Hampshire GOP primary, Trump won by more than 20 points.

In addition, exit polls found that 70 percent of Haley supporters were registered as “undeclared” and nearly half of them were voting for Haley because they opposed Trump. That means independent voters in New Hampshire were so disgusted by Trump they came out in big numbers to cast a ballot against him. (Despite Trump’s delusional lie, Democrats were not permitted to switch on election day in New Hampshire and vote in the GOP primary. Only Republicans and undeclared voters could vote and the deadline to switch from Democrat to undeclared was in early October.)

--A BIG chunk of Republicans say they won’t vote for Trump in November: Obviously this can change but surveys of GOP voters in both New Hampshire and Iowa show Trump has a huge problem come November. As Fox News reported Wednesday morning, their own analysis of GOP voters in New Hampshire found 35 percent said they would not vote for Trump in November. As Fox News also noted—correctly for a change—an NBC News/Des Moines Register of voters in Iowa found that 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Biden over Trump if that was the match up in November.

Contrast that with Trump heading into the 2020 election where Gallup polls had him with the support of 90 to 95 percent of all Republicans. Trump is nowhere near that level of support now among GOP voters as we can see with him winning New Hampshire with just 54% of the vote and the Iowa caucus with 51 percent. Trump will likely see more Republicans support him if he’s the nominee, but it appears Trump could end up with 30 percent or more of Republicans not voting for him which makes him winning in November just about impossible. (Per polls of GOP voters, if Trump is convicted of a crime before November, those numbers could even be higher.)

--Trump’s dangerous mental decline is now a real issue: Due to Nikki Haley raising Trump’s cognitive slide on Saturday after Trump repeatedly confused Nancy Pelosi and Haley, the corporate media finally began addressing this issue.

And Haley doubled down on Trump’s mental challenges in her post-election speech telling the New Hampshire crowd, “The other day, Donald Trump accused me of not providing security at the Capitol on January 6th.” (That line elicited big laughs from her supporters which we know angers Trump even more!) She continued, “Now, know I’ve long called for mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75…Trump claims he’d do better than me in one of those tests. Maybe he would. Maybe he wouldn’t.” Haley then added a challenge, “But if he thinks that, then he should have no problem standing on a debate stage with me.”

The hope is Haley’s team makes pressuring Trump to debate her before the Feb 24 South Carolina GOP primary a central message. However, it’s doubtful Trump will debate her—and I can assure you he will never debate President Biden unless he’s way down in the polls—because Trump and his handlers know that Trump’s cognitive decline can’t be hidden in a live debate format. Yet if she makes this is a key issue over the next few weeks it will paint Trump as hiding something from voters.

But to that end, the corporate media needs to stop dismissing Trump’s comments as “lies” when in reality they are more evidence of Trump’s dangerous mental decline. For example, on Tuesday night during his “victory” speech, Trump declared, "You know we won New Hampshire three times now three. We win it every time. We win the primary. We win the generals. We won it and it’s a very, very special place to me."

In reality, Trump never won the November general elections in New Hampshire—and it has not been close. In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 5 points. In 2020, Trump lost to Biden by an even greater margin of 7 points. But Trump appears to sincerely believe he actually won. That is not a lie, it’s again more evidence of his dangerous mental decline that is on display just about daily and it’s time corporate media cover it for what it is. As a nation, we cannot have a commander in chief living in world where he makes up facts and orders military action based on his delusions.

--With Trump, abortion will be a key issue in 2024 which propels Democrats: First off, 80 percent of Trump voters in New Hampshire want a national abortion ban per CBS’s exit polling. What we learned about Trump when he was President is that he only cares about what his base wants. Given 80 percent of them wants a national abortion ban, he will deliver one if he’s President and has a GOP Congress making this ripe ground for Democrats to hit Trump on.

Secondly, we’ve seen abortion rights win election after election since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade. Candidly, no one is better for Democrats to run against on this issue than Trump given this is the guy who stated last year while appearing in CNN Town Hall Trump boasted: “I was able to terminate Roe v. Wade after 50 years of trying,” adding he was “honored” to do so.

And during a Newsmax interview in May, Trump bragged: “I’m the one that got rid of Roe v. Wade, and everybody said that was an impossible thing to do.” He added, “I put on three Supreme Court justices. Very few people have had that privilege or honor.”

The ads write themselves. In fact, President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally in Virginia on Tuesday where reproductive freedom for women was the central issue. During the speech, Biden stated bluntly, “Let there be no mistake. The person most responsible for taking away this freedom in America is Donald Trump.” Biden added, “The reason women are being forced to travel across state lines for health care is Donald Trump. The reason their fundamental right has been stripped away is Donald Trump.”

In reality, Trump should already be in a prison cell or at least barred from the ballot by way of the 14^th Amendment. But those issues are beyond are control. What we do control is how we come out in 2024. And when we come out big, we win big. And no one fires us up more to vote than Donald Trump.