Trump is going to be a Convicted Felon by June

This is not about hush money, it's about election fraud!

Donald Trump’s first of four criminal trials is scheduled to begin Monday in New York. After what is expected to be two to three weeks for jury selection, Trump’s criminal trial—where he is facing 34 felonies--is predicted to take six weeks. That means by mid-June, Donald Trump will be a convicted felon. It’s really that simple.

Is there a chance Trump is not convicted? Sure, as a former trial lawyer, I can vouch firsthand that juries can surprise you. But based on the evidence developed in the criminal investigation and disclosed during the pre-trial portion of this case, it is clear that Trump falsified documents to conceal other federal and state crimes. Thus, Trump committed numerous felonies.

Everyone knows the core allegation, namely that Trump—via his then lawyer Michael Cohen--paid $130,000 shortly before the 2016 election to stop Stormy Daniels from going public with the tale of her affair with Trump.  Now, if Trump had paid Daniels solely to keep his wife from finding out about his affair, that would be one thing. It wasn’t.  

Trump paid Daniels the money because he feared that if information went public at the time, he would lose the 2016 election. That at the very least made the secret payment a violation of federal election laws—which is one of the felonies Cohen pled guilty to committing in 2018, telling the court he made the payment “in coordination with, and at the direction of,” a presidential candidate who was Trump.

This is why Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg has repeatedly stated  the “core” of this case “is not money for sex,” it’s election corruption.  Indeed, the very first line of the Statement of Facts that details the basis for the charges against Trump tells us that, “The defendant DONALD J. TRUMP repeatedly and fraudulently falsified New York business records to conceal criminal conduct that hid damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election.”

When you look at the timing of when Trump first hatched this scheme to pay off Daniels, you get why this was all about the campaign.  The charging documents tell us point blank: “About one month before the election, on or about October 7, 2016, news broke that the Defendant had been caught on tape saying to the host of Access Hollywood: “I just start kissing them [women]. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything…Grab ’em by the [genitals]. You can do anything.”  

The political firestorm caused by the release of the Access Hollywood tape is why just three days later, Trump—with the help of Cohen and his publisher friend AMI Editor-in-Chief David Pecker-- moved swiftly to pay off Daniels. They heard she was shopping around the story of her affair with Trump. And Trump, former Trump aide Hope Hicks (who the State will be calling as a witness), Cohen and others knew that it would have been devastating for his campaign if voters learned in the midst of the Access Hollywood tape backlash that Trump had an affair with a “porn star” a mere four months after Melania gave birth to their only child. 

Indeed, the statement of facts tells us this was all about the campaign: “The evidence shows that both the Defendant and his campaign staff were concerned that the tape would harm his viability as a candidate and reduce his standing with female voters in particular.”

That is why Daniels was approached on October 10, 2016, with a deal to “prevent disclosure of the damaging information in the final weeks before the presidential election.”  Under the agreement, Daniels was paid $130,000.

But here is where the crimes come in. As the pleadings explain, Trump “did not want to make the $130,000 payment himself” so he asked Cohen to come up with a way to do that. “After discussing various payment options,” Cohen agreed he would make the payment and Trump would pay him back. It all worked as planned, Daniels never told America about the affair and Trump won the election.

Then, “shortly after being elected President, the Defendant arranged to reimburse” Cohen for the payoff he made to Daniels on Trump’s behalf. The plan they came up was that Cohen would be paid monthly for “legal fees” until the amount he advanced was repaid. In reality, as the pleadings note, “At no point did Lawyer A [Cohen] have a retainer agreement with the Defendant or the Trump Organization.”   Yet Cohen still submitted monthly invoices to Trump’s company for legal services. Some were paid by Trump’s company while nine of the reimbursement checks to Cohen for fabricated legal services came from Trump’s personal bank account and Trump “signed each of the checks personally.” And as alleged, “The Defendant caused his entities’ business records to be falsified to disguise his and others’ criminal conduct.”

Those facts are a textbook example of what the crime of falsifying business records looks like. Trump directed his corporation in their records to claim this hush money payment was actually an expense for the Trump corporation. They weren’t. It was solely to help Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Those facts alone though would make this case a misdemeanor. But as the State alleges—and will prove—Trump “fraudulently falsified New York business records to conceal criminal conduct.” That elevates this case to the Class E felony for which Trump is charged with 34 counts.

As developed during the pre-trial portion of the case, the DA has shown that Trump falsified corporate records to conceal three potential other crimes: a federal campaign finance violation, a state election-law crime and tax fraud. In fact, in February, the trial judge rejected Trump’s attempt to dismiss the felonies because in the judge’s view, DA Bragg’s examples of other crimes that Trump intended to commit by concealing the payments to Cohen were “legally sufficient” to support such charges.  (That doesn’t mean Trump can’t contest this issue at trial.)

Each of the 34 felonies Trump is charged with carries a maximum prison sentence of four years.  Rightfully, he should go to jail if convicted—but even then, sentencing would likely not take place until much later. But if the trial goes as expected, by June, Donald Trump—the GOP’s 2024 presidential nominee—will be a convicted felon. From there, it’s up to Democrats to ensure that from then on Trump’s first name is known as “Convicted felon.”

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