This may be the most important poll of the 2024 race—and it has some good news!

This really is very good!

Do polls tell us who will win a presidential election?  (Pause for laughs.) Of course not. But despite what some of our fellow Democrats might say, we cannot totally ignore polls. Reputable polls (not GOP garbage polls like Rasmussen or Trafalgar) do show us trends that can be helpful in getting a sense where the electorate is moving when it comes a presidential candidate.

There is, however, a new poll that is very instructive. No, it’s not one showing which candidate is leading in key battleground states. Rather, it’s a Gallup poll on voter enthusiasm that puts into data what many of us have been feeling.

This poll asked voters are you “more enthusiastic than usual about voting”? Among Republican and GOP leaning voters, Gallup found 64% say they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” in the 2024 race. That is up from 59% in March.

So what about Democratic voters? In Gallup’s poll in March, only 55% of Democrats and Democratic leaners were enthusiastic.

Where is the good news you are asking?! Well, flash forward to the brand new Gallup poll released a few days ago and now nearly 80% of Democrats and people leaning Democratic were more enthusiastic than usual to vote. For context, the last time our side was this enthusiastic to vote was during the 2008 election.

That means Democrats have about a 15% enthusiasm gap in our favor just weeks before early voting begins in key states. And this new poll was taken in the weeks BEFORE the Democratic National Convention. That means the enthusiasm gap may now actually be even greater.

Obviously, in a close election—and let’s be clear 2024 will be close--enthusiasm is a key metric for a few reasons. People who are excited about a candidate tend to be the ones who volunteer, make phone calls, knock on doors, talk to friends about the person, donate, etc.

And of course they are more likely to vote. In fact, one reason polls tend to be wrong so often is that they make assumptions based on the turnout in past elections of how many of each demographic should be in a polling sample. But as Pew Research explains in a very detailed article for those who want a deeper dive on past polling flubs, “Pre-election polls face one crucial challenge that routine opinion polls do not: determining who of the people surveyed will actually cast a ballot.”

Keep in mind nearly one in three registered voters generally don’t cast a ballot in a presidential election making predicting who will actually head to the polls that much harder.

That is where enthusiasm-and the sizable enthusiasm gap we are now seeing—plays a huge role. As “election guru” Nate Silver wrote about years ago, “When you hear the phrase “enthusiasm gap,” what you should really be thinking of is the turnout gap.”  Silver then went through the level of enthusiasm measured by the Gallup poll of Democrats and Republicans leading up to midterms. And sure enough, the higher the enthusiasm, the bigger the turnout from those on that side.

Between now and Election Day there will countless polls released.  Sure, it brings us joy to see a poll like the one released Sunday from ABC News that shows Harris with a six point lead over Trump among likely voters.

But there are still fundamental questions about the reliability of these head to head polls. Keep in mind the presidential polls were even less reliable in 2020 than in 2016!  As Pew Research reported: A post-election review of polling by the American Association for Public Opinion Research found, “the 2020 polls featured polling error of an unusual magnitude: It was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and the highest in at least 20 years for state-level estimates of the vote in presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial contests.”

Or put more plainly: Despite attempting to correct the mistakes of 2016, “The 2020 election polls again underestimated Trump’s support.”

Yep, the 2020 election polling was worse than 2016 when comes to measuring Trump’s support. And we should be concerned that polls in 2024 may still underestimate Trump’s voters. (Although as experts note, the 2022 midterm election polling was far more accurate.)

But what polls have been correct on is the connection between enthusiasm and people actually voting.  It’s why this new Gallup poll is so meaningful.

Early voting begins in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania in just two weeks on Sept. 16.  That is followed by Virginia on Sept 20 and the list goes on.

We have the enthusiasm, energy and joy on our side. It’s now time to turn those vibes into votes!!

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