Democracy's future, ironically, will depend on its present.
Today, American democracy is threatened by US Congressional Republicans, right-wing media including Fox News, morbidly rich mega-donors and wealthy Corporations, the former guy, red state congresses and judiciary, SCOTUS majorities, Evangelicals and Christian Nationalists, misogynists, election, vaccine and climate change deniers, anti-abortionists, anti-LGBTQ "patriots," anti-immigrant, anti-Semites and other racists, white supremacists, gun-toting Second Amendment enthusiasts, red state Governor "banners," (CRT, DEI, SEL, Disney, drag shows, books, trans healthcare,) Moms for Liberty, and Artificial Intelligence-using foreign nationals.
Their "Job One" will be to destroy American democracy by encouraging voter suppression and purges, gerrymandering, and voter intimidation, including through violence, (using firearms if necessary,) and stochastic terrorism.
Voting will be very important in '24, to the extent "permitted" by those with power, and their supporters, who'd rather we didn't.
Exactly! I do think many Americans, regardless of their political affiliation, have a libertarian streak, for lack of a better word, that shuns government involvement in personal decisions. That is why so many people will cross party lines to vote on these ballot measures.
Great piece Dean, I think part of the "issue" is rights in general.
If the GOP will take away Women's rights, we KNOW they'll go after any "group" they deem inferior (according to their "bible").
Going backwards is not an option and since Abortions have decreased year over year there is NO reason to eliminate the option, but to provide better Health Care in the form of Birth Control AND Sex Education in the areas that needed it most.
"In 1973, the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision legalized abortion in all 50 states. From 1973 to 1980, the abortion rate rose almost 80%, peaking at 29.3 abortions per 1,000 women of childbearing age in 1980 and 1981.
From 1981 through 2017, the abortion rate fell by more than half, always falling faster in Democratic administrations than Republican ones. The abortion rate fell below the 1973 rate in 2012 and continued to fall through 2017, when it stood at 13.5 abortions per 1,000 women of childbearing age. The abortion rate then rose from 2018 through 2020.
During the 1980s, the population of women of childbearing age grew faster than the abortion rate fell, so the annual number of abortions performed did not peak until 1990, at about 1.6 million abortions. The number of abortions generally fell from 1991 through 2017, and rose thereafter. The largest percentage decrease in the number of abortions occurred in 2013, the year the contraceptive mandate of the Affordable Care Act took effect for most health insurance plans. Approximately 860,000 abortions were performed in 2017, rising to about 930,000 in 2020.
From 1973 to 1983, the abortion ratio reported by the Guttmacher Institute rose about 60%, peaking at 30.4 in 1983. From 1984 through 2016, the abortion ratio fell about 40%. It hit a low of 18.3 in 2016 and rose to 20.6 in 2020. The abortion ratio was slightly lower in 2016 and 2017 than in 1973 because a 40% decrease more than offsets a 60% increase.
This summary is largely based on data collected by the Guttmacher Institute. Data collected by the CDC shows similar trends, but the CDC consistently finds fewer abortions.
In 2022, the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization Supreme Court decision overturned Roe v. Wade. The effect of Dobbs on the abortion rate will not be known for several years.
Abortion data for the four most recent years reported by the Guttmacher Institute appears below. The abortion ratio is the number of abortions per 100 pregnancies ending in an abortion or a live birth. From 2017 through 2020, the abortion rate rose 6.7%.[5]
Guttmacher Institute data
year number of abortions abortion rate abortion ratio
2016 874,100 13.7 18.3
2017 862,300 13.5 18.4
2019 916,460 14.2 not yet reported
2020 930,160 14.4 20.6
Abortion data for the ten most recent years reported by the CDC appears below. The data comes from 47 states, excluding California, Maryland, New Hampshire, and the District of Columbia. The abortion ratio is the number of abortions per 1,000 live births. In 2018 and 2019, for the first time since 1979 and 1980, the abortion rate rose two years in a row.[3]
CDC data
year number of abortions abortion rate abortion ratio
Yes: It’s the abortion, stupid. It’s the democracy, stupid. But one more thing too.
Those are big national issue. As Governor Bashear said last night in his victory speech, Democrats also have to say what they are running FOR, not just what they're running against. Candidates need to speak to the local issues that people care about -- local issues whether that's good schools or fixing the roads, or whatever is relevant to a candidate's district. Ask any successful candidate, and that's what they'll tell you -- it isn't ONLY about those high-stakes big issues.
Someone on another Substack newsletter pointed out something remarkable that happened in a consistently red Pennsylvania district. The school board was filled with far right “moms for liberty” types, and the elections yesterday flipped every single one of those seats to a Democratic candidate. The person from this district reported that people there generally vote Republican 75% to 25%, and yet the entire school board was flipped. That is phenomenal.
It's abortion. It's gun violence. It's Democracy. It's the economy...in that Dems need to show Americans why prices are high...Corporate Greed...and what Democrats have tried to do about it like holding Corporations accountable only to be defeated by Republicans protecting the wealthy...again. Show what Democrats have done and what Republicans want to do to undermine every American who isn't in wealthy crowd.
Dean I generally agree with this post, however interview Simon Rosenberg and dive into along with abortion and democracy that Dems have a excellent record on the economy going back 30-40 years. It doesn’t get any attention or spotlight because of the BS ‘R’s are better on economy’ BS talking point. Consider having him on! Simon is an excellent expert and guest!
You can't tell people the economy is better or worse than how they feel it. So data on the issue doesn't move me. But issues that impact people personally like basic human rights, etc does animate me and others. So I stick with those issues more but thanks!
Dean, thanks for your reply. I am like you that human rights move me too. No doubt that I myself got active in voter reg becuz of Dobbs. My point is economy does ‘move’ people too. Maybe not you or I or most passionate people period. But a large number of voters (ex. those type A, stoic, bean counter type personalities) have been fed that ‘R’s are fiscally responsible’. And that is simply untrue. Recent polling shows voters feel Trump & R’s are better on economy. This message is decades of stale framing without current facts or proven historical context. And seemingly absurd since Trump Org is felonious.
I agree that last night was huge because of motivating issues of freedoms & democracy. I am also saying as the election season progresses, how people feel about the economy will motivate some voters, or even dampen motivation for others. It will be pulled out of the R misinfo arsenal to attack Biden because it is clearly one talking point, R’s blindly believe. But we all deserve to be appropriately informed with facts about which party has the best current and historical economic record. That is Dems.
Whether it is war, reproductive rights, democracy and rule of law, or economy.... to vote informed, voters deserve facts first. Allowing facts to influence & motivate and sharpen our critical thinking
has been slipping in our environment of culture wars, angertainment and billion $ media corruption. This environment generates fear. Turning this fear into positive helpful action like voter reg., for me, has challenged me to learn more and follow voices like yours and Simon’s.
So if you aren’t put off by my comments, which was not my intent, I assure you. Listen to Simon’s with ‘Dems things are better’ below. He is a regular on MSNBC & is credited for debunking the midterm red wave. All the best. I appreciate your views & thanks for the dialogue.
This is fascinating data. Thanks for sharing. I want to stick it on Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles Substack. He is a dem data wiz and curious if he would comment about ur research. The simple fact here that abortion access doesn’t mean More abortions are happening is not getting discussed. Great comment! Thanks
With Speaker Johnson being a trump troglodyte and 2nd in line to the presidency, I believe many trump troglodytes are plotting the early demise of Biden & Harris so Johnson can take over and give it all to trump. & I believe they will try it before Nov 2024. JMO.
The GOP and SCOTUS have pissed women OFF! TOLD YA!!
Signed,
A WOMAN
Great to hear!!!
Democracy's future, ironically, will depend on its present.
Today, American democracy is threatened by US Congressional Republicans, right-wing media including Fox News, morbidly rich mega-donors and wealthy Corporations, the former guy, red state congresses and judiciary, SCOTUS majorities, Evangelicals and Christian Nationalists, misogynists, election, vaccine and climate change deniers, anti-abortionists, anti-LGBTQ "patriots," anti-immigrant, anti-Semites and other racists, white supremacists, gun-toting Second Amendment enthusiasts, red state Governor "banners," (CRT, DEI, SEL, Disney, drag shows, books, trans healthcare,) Moms for Liberty, and Artificial Intelligence-using foreign nationals.
Their "Job One" will be to destroy American democracy by encouraging voter suppression and purges, gerrymandering, and voter intimidation, including through violence, (using firearms if necessary,) and stochastic terrorism.
Voting will be very important in '24, to the extent "permitted" by those with power, and their supporters, who'd rather we didn't.
Someone posted on Twitter last night
"It's the autonomy, stupid!"🏆
That's good!
Exactly! I do think many Americans, regardless of their political affiliation, have a libertarian streak, for lack of a better word, that shuns government involvement in personal decisions. That is why so many people will cross party lines to vote on these ballot measures.
Great piece Dean, I think part of the "issue" is rights in general.
If the GOP will take away Women's rights, we KNOW they'll go after any "group" they deem inferior (according to their "bible").
Going backwards is not an option and since Abortions have decreased year over year there is NO reason to eliminate the option, but to provide better Health Care in the form of Birth Control AND Sex Education in the areas that needed it most.
"In 1973, the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision legalized abortion in all 50 states. From 1973 to 1980, the abortion rate rose almost 80%, peaking at 29.3 abortions per 1,000 women of childbearing age in 1980 and 1981.
From 1981 through 2017, the abortion rate fell by more than half, always falling faster in Democratic administrations than Republican ones. The abortion rate fell below the 1973 rate in 2012 and continued to fall through 2017, when it stood at 13.5 abortions per 1,000 women of childbearing age. The abortion rate then rose from 2018 through 2020.
During the 1980s, the population of women of childbearing age grew faster than the abortion rate fell, so the annual number of abortions performed did not peak until 1990, at about 1.6 million abortions. The number of abortions generally fell from 1991 through 2017, and rose thereafter. The largest percentage decrease in the number of abortions occurred in 2013, the year the contraceptive mandate of the Affordable Care Act took effect for most health insurance plans. Approximately 860,000 abortions were performed in 2017, rising to about 930,000 in 2020.
From 1973 to 1983, the abortion ratio reported by the Guttmacher Institute rose about 60%, peaking at 30.4 in 1983. From 1984 through 2016, the abortion ratio fell about 40%. It hit a low of 18.3 in 2016 and rose to 20.6 in 2020. The abortion ratio was slightly lower in 2016 and 2017 than in 1973 because a 40% decrease more than offsets a 60% increase.
This summary is largely based on data collected by the Guttmacher Institute. Data collected by the CDC shows similar trends, but the CDC consistently finds fewer abortions.
In 2022, the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization Supreme Court decision overturned Roe v. Wade. The effect of Dobbs on the abortion rate will not be known for several years.
Abortion data for the four most recent years reported by the Guttmacher Institute appears below. The abortion ratio is the number of abortions per 100 pregnancies ending in an abortion or a live birth. From 2017 through 2020, the abortion rate rose 6.7%.[5]
Guttmacher Institute data
year number of abortions abortion rate abortion ratio
2016 874,100 13.7 18.3
2017 862,300 13.5 18.4
2019 916,460 14.2 not yet reported
2020 930,160 14.4 20.6
Abortion data for the ten most recent years reported by the CDC appears below. The data comes from 47 states, excluding California, Maryland, New Hampshire, and the District of Columbia. The abortion ratio is the number of abortions per 1,000 live births. In 2018 and 2019, for the first time since 1979 and 1980, the abortion rate rose two years in a row.[3]
CDC data
year number of abortions abortion rate abortion ratio
2010 762,755 14.6 228
2011 727,554 13.9 219
2012 696,587 13.2 210
2013 661,874 12.5 200
2014 649,849 12.1 186
2015 636,902 11.8 188
2016 623,471 11.6 186
2017 609,095 11.2 185
2018 614,820 11.3 189
2019 625,346 11.4 195"
Great column, Dean. Now if we can just get republicons to woke up!
Ha! Never Happen Brian!
I know. They're too stubborn and stupid, a deadly combination.
Yes: It’s the abortion, stupid. It’s the democracy, stupid. But one more thing too.
Those are big national issue. As Governor Bashear said last night in his victory speech, Democrats also have to say what they are running FOR, not just what they're running against. Candidates need to speak to the local issues that people care about -- local issues whether that's good schools or fixing the roads, or whatever is relevant to a candidate's district. Ask any successful candidate, and that's what they'll tell you -- it isn't ONLY about those high-stakes big issues.
Someone on another Substack newsletter pointed out something remarkable that happened in a consistently red Pennsylvania district. The school board was filled with far right “moms for liberty” types, and the elections yesterday flipped every single one of those seats to a Democratic candidate. The person from this district reported that people there generally vote Republican 75% to 25%, and yet the entire school board was flipped. That is phenomenal.
Just to clarify, I meant that Republicans usually get 75% of the vote, while Democrats get 25%, in general.
It's abortion. It's gun violence. It's Democracy. It's the economy...in that Dems need to show Americans why prices are high...Corporate Greed...and what Democrats have tried to do about it like holding Corporations accountable only to be defeated by Republicans protecting the wealthy...again. Show what Democrats have done and what Republicans want to do to undermine every American who isn't in wealthy crowd.
There is so much we all agree on.
Republicons are all poster children for abortion.
Make it mandatory just for their party and see how they like it!
Vote D for deliverance from these Christo-Fascist Evilgelicals once and forever!
That's how the real Jesus would vote.
Dean I generally agree with this post, however interview Simon Rosenberg and dive into along with abortion and democracy that Dems have a excellent record on the economy going back 30-40 years. It doesn’t get any attention or spotlight because of the BS ‘R’s are better on economy’ BS talking point. Consider having him on! Simon is an excellent expert and guest!
You can't tell people the economy is better or worse than how they feel it. So data on the issue doesn't move me. But issues that impact people personally like basic human rights, etc does animate me and others. So I stick with those issues more but thanks!
Dean, thanks for your reply. I am like you that human rights move me too. No doubt that I myself got active in voter reg becuz of Dobbs. My point is economy does ‘move’ people too. Maybe not you or I or most passionate people period. But a large number of voters (ex. those type A, stoic, bean counter type personalities) have been fed that ‘R’s are fiscally responsible’. And that is simply untrue. Recent polling shows voters feel Trump & R’s are better on economy. This message is decades of stale framing without current facts or proven historical context. And seemingly absurd since Trump Org is felonious.
I agree that last night was huge because of motivating issues of freedoms & democracy. I am also saying as the election season progresses, how people feel about the economy will motivate some voters, or even dampen motivation for others. It will be pulled out of the R misinfo arsenal to attack Biden because it is clearly one talking point, R’s blindly believe. But we all deserve to be appropriately informed with facts about which party has the best current and historical economic record. That is Dems.
Whether it is war, reproductive rights, democracy and rule of law, or economy.... to vote informed, voters deserve facts first. Allowing facts to influence & motivate and sharpen our critical thinking
has been slipping in our environment of culture wars, angertainment and billion $ media corruption. This environment generates fear. Turning this fear into positive helpful action like voter reg., for me, has challenged me to learn more and follow voices like yours and Simon’s.
So if you aren’t put off by my comments, which was not my intent, I assure you. Listen to Simon’s with ‘Dems things are better’ below. He is a regular on MSNBC & is credited for debunking the midterm red wave. All the best. I appreciate your views & thanks for the dialogue.
https://youtu.be/e5OWNauGbHc?si=sDpnh4dqenwkRC_5
This is fascinating data. Thanks for sharing. I want to stick it on Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles Substack. He is a dem data wiz and curious if he would comment about ur research. The simple fact here that abortion access doesn’t mean More abortions are happening is not getting discussed. Great comment! Thanks
With Speaker Johnson being a trump troglodyte and 2nd in line to the presidency, I believe many trump troglodytes are plotting the early demise of Biden & Harris so Johnson can take over and give it all to trump. & I believe they will try it before Nov 2024. JMO.
Dean, you may be in the Men's auxiliary :)