Here’s what the recent polls tell us Democrats need to do to win in 2024
The data is right there!
Spoiler alert: The recent swath of polls showing Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump absolutely do not tell us who will win the November 5 election that’s eight months away. Now, the same is true for the recent polls showing Biden topping Trump such as the I&I/TIPP poll released Monday that has Biden up by one over Trump as well as the Quinnipiac poll from two weeks ago with Biden up by four points.
But dismissing these polls as meaningless or only paying attention to the ones that show Biden up is a mistake. These polls are instructive on other fronts--especially on the issues of concern to voters as well as the strengths and weaknesses of Biden and Trump.
To that end, I reviewed the detailed data from the NY Times, CBS News, Fox News and Wall Street Journal polls all released in the past few days that attracted so much media coverage to share what I see as the good, bad and almost ugly. I will note that the corporate media focused on covering the worst of the polls for Biden, The NY Times poll, but ignored the bright spots of the other polls. (In reality, all the polls except NYT were within the margin of error including the WSJ poll showing Trump’s lead dropping from four points in December to now just two points.)
At the outset—and this is important—the CBS News poll tells us that most Americans are simply not paying attention to the 2024 presidential race the way you and I are. (Simply by the fact you are reading this, I say that confidently!) CBS asked voters this question: “How much are you thinking about the 2024 presidential race these days?” In response, 41% said “a lot.” That means a solid majority of voters are barely paying attention to the details of Trump that raise our blood pressure on a daily basis! The poll did find 35% of voters said they are following the election “some” but that’s people saving face with a pollster because either you are obsessed with politics like the 41% of us are or you are tuned out. And nearly 25% of Americans openly admitted to not following the 2024 election at all.
That means polls asking who people will vote for in November are very premature. As a reminder, 2020 exit polls found that approximately 30% of voters didn’t make up their mind who to support for President until September or later—with 13% deciding in the final week of the campaign.
Now let’s start with two bad bits of information in these polls. First, as we’ve all seen, concerns about Biden’s age. This issue is in every poll and is a real issue for some. The lesson for Biden and Democrats is to ensure that this issue is not at the top of the list for voters. Instead, the focus must be touching on this while then pivoting to the numerous issues that favor Democrats such as reproductive freedom.
In fact, Biden did that well last week on Seth Meyer’s NBC late night show when he joked about his age saying, “You got to take a look at the other guy, he’s about as old as I am, but he can’t remember his wife’s name.” Biden then quickly turned to Trump wanting to take us back on abortion and more.
Second, the polls show an enthusiasm gap. For example, the CBS poll found among Biden supporters, only 31% said their choice was “mainly because I like Joe Biden”—with 47% saying it was to oppose Trump. In contrast, among Trump supporters, 51% they were casting a ballot because they like Trump. Well Biden has time to correct this starting with Thursday’s State of the Union by laying out a bold vision for a second term that will inspire voters.
Now to the good parts of these polls. On the economy as the WSJ poll noted, more Americans are now saying their own personal economy has improved under Biden. For example, 43% responded that their personal finances are headed in the right direction—a 9-point increase from the WSJ’s December poll. Plus voters are more approving of Biden’s handling of inflation. In every poll, the economy was ranked as the top issue so these WSJ poll numbers are a good sign.
Then there are the issues the polls tell us are the ideal ones for Democrats to lean into much more. For starters, abortion. In the WSJ poll, 60% of voters support abortion being legal with few exceptions—only 29% support the GOP position that abortion should be just about illegal.
The CBS poll is even more instructive for Democrats on abortion with 57% of Americans think overturning Roe v Wade was a “bad thing.” But—and here is where Democratic messaging needs to kick in—only 33% of voters blame Trump for Roe being overturned.
Democrats need to tie Trump to overturning Roe in ad after ad. And these ads write themselves since Trump publicly bragged, “I was able to terminate Roe v. Wade after 50 years of trying,” adding he was “honored” to do so. And in a Newsmax interview, Trump bragged: “I’m the one that got rid of Roe v. Wade, and everybody said that was an impossible thing to do.” He added, “I put on three Supreme Court justices. Very few people have had that privilege or honor.”
Democrats need to remind people over and over that because of Trump, the GOP has been empowered to enact state laws that barbarically force millions of women to carry a fetus against their will to term. These laws are literally killing women. And if Trump wins, he and the GOP will do that nationwide.
Same goes for the issue of preserving our democracy—which Biden is seen by voters as the person better trusted. We need ads featuring Trump’s Jan 6 attack with his supporters brutally beating police officers followed by Trump’s repeated pledge to pardon the Jan 6 terrorists. That last part is key because the WSJ poll found that 53% of voters “oppose” pardoning the Jan 6 terrorists—with 48% “strongly opposing” that. In comparison, only 27% strongly favor what Trump pardoning the Jan 6 attackers.
On Trump’s criminality, the NY Times poll found 53% of voters said “yes” Trump committed “serious" crimes, to only 36% who said no. That means Biden and Democrats can and should be talking about Trump’s criminal charges. I don’t mean chanting “Lock Him up,” but when the GOP presidential nominee is facing 91 felonies and is literally out on bail, Democrats need to stop rising above it and instead remind people of Trump’s crimes--especially for his attempted coup. Imagine how Trump and GOP would be talking about this issue if Biden was facing 91 felonies?! (The WSJ poll found if Trump is convicted of felony, his two-point lead is replaced by Biden jumping to a four-point lead—a six-point swing.)
These polls are useless as to who will win in November. But they do provide a great snapshot into where voters are today, what Biden needs to work on and the strategy Democrats should pursue in order to win in November. The key issues are on the side of the Democrats. It’s now time to for Democrats to use the massive advantage they have in fundraising over Trump to run ads on every platform that both pound Trump plus lay out a bold vision for the future that will help Americans. That is how Democrats win!
Some democrats are speaking up loud and clear: Kamala Harris is doing an excellent job of that from what I've seen. We need more like her, who are not afraid to be outspoken. Our lives depend on it.
Thank you for this. I think polling this far out is just crap. And it's NOT news, since the methodologies are closer to alchemy than science. INSTEAD focus on real votes since 2020. What do these HARD data tell us? Generally, the GOP is toxic. Absolutely Toxic. Okay, so that's what the Dems need to focus on, not bad data. Thanks for hammering this home.