Democrats shouldn’t panic over new polls about Biden—but you can’t be complacent
We are one year until 2024 election
There’s no other way to put it this: The New York Times polls released Sunday showing President Biden trailing Donald Trump in five of six battleground states is not good. In fact, these polls are a bit distressing. But what these polls should not do is cause panic. After all—in terms of polling—President Barack Obama was in just about the same position one year before his re-election as Biden is today yet he won decisively.
Let’s start, though, with the NY Times polls that are likely causing many in Biden world to reach for a handful of antacids. It’s not just the topline finding Biden trailing in five key battleground states including Pennsylvania, Arizona and even Michigan--where Biden is down by 5 points to Trump in a state he won by nearly 3 points in 2020. As the NY Times explained, the multi-racial coalition that powered Biden to victory is “fraying,” with Biden losing support among Black and Hispanic voters. Biden also is seeing a drop in support among younger voters.
And on the economy--an issue that is often the key metric in determining a President’s re-election prospects—the poll finds “the largest gap of any issue” with 59 percent of voters to 37 percent saying they better trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy.
You might be asking then: Why not panic?! For a few reasons. First, Obama exactly at ths time--one year before the 2012 election--was faced with similar polls showing him losing to Mitt Romney, who would go on to be the GOP’s 2012 presidential nominee. For example, a CNN poll in November 2011 election found Romney leading Obama by four points.
It was polls like that which generated articles at the time that Obama was on the way to defeat. And I don’t mean in right wing publications. but in the ones we typically like, including NY Times analysis, “Is Obama Toast?,” PBS’s “Poll Finds Young People Skeptical of Obama’s Re-election Prospects” and the left-leaning Brookings, “One Year to Go: President Barack Obama’s Uphill Battle for Reelection in 2012.” There was even a Wall Street Journal op-ed by two well-known Democratic pollsters calling on Obama to step aside to allow Hillary Clinton to become the 2012 Democratic nominee because they believed she was better suited to win.
What happened? Obama won in 2012 by more than 5 million votes and dominated the Electoral College 332 to 206 votes. And he did so by winning the key battleground states that is the focus of the NY Times poll.
Also keep in mind that Biden’s approval ratings at this point a year before the election averaged 43%- -with Biden in a similar place averaging 41% approval. Neither are great numbers but my point is that Obama was able to still win a solid re-election come November 2012.
True, we all get that Obama and Biden are not the same candidates. But what is instructive is that Obama won in large part by way of a superior ground game in terms of ensuring that voters who supported him actually did cast a ballot. Biden—who was Obama’s vice-president—is obviously well aware of this. And given Biden’s ability so far to greatly outraise Trump in terms of campaign donations, his campaign has more resources to robustly invest in this key part of the campaign. (Last quarter, Biden raised $72 million to Trump’s $45 million—and Trump is spending a chunk of that on legal fees.)
But there is something else in Biden’s favor. The NY Times poll—despite its concerning top line numbers--does offer both hope and a roadmap to Biden’s victory. For starters, even the NY Times analysis finds that, “The poll suggests that it shouldn’t necessarily be difficult for Mr. Biden to reassemble his winning coalition.” To do that, Biden needs “to reinvigorate voters from traditional Democratic constituencies,” who per the Times analysis “remain quite open to Democrats in a matchup against Mr. Trump.”
What issues can inspire those in that coalition? The NY Times poll offers some guidance there as well. Voters trust Biden by nine points on the issue of abortion—an issue that has caused unexpected voter turnout even in red states to defend reproductive freedom. And some experts cited that “abortion first” voters where a big part of why there was no “red wave” in 2022 election.
That bodes well for Biden in a potential match up with Trump given that Trump has bragged, “I was able to terminate Roe v. Wade” and was “honored” to do so. You can expect to see that Trump quote in ads by the Biden campaign that will blanket the battleground states next fall as Democrats point to Trump as the reason why millions of women in our country have lost their right to reproductive freedom—and the very real concern he will sign into law a national abortion ban if he wins.
The other issue Biden is more trusted than Trump on is the handling of “democracy.” Biden made that a key issues in the closing weeks of the 2022 midterm, for example with his speech in September 2022 where he warned, “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.” Some viewed Biden’s defense of democracy as a key reason why Democrats overperformed in the 2022 midterm.
The good news is that Biden has already made it clear that protecting our democracy will be a cornerstone of his 2024 campaign. We saw that with his September speech in Arizona where he reminded the nation, “There is an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs in our democracy: the MAGA Movement.”
Like many of you, I’m angry and frustrated that so many of our fellow Americans could indicate they would still support Trump despite his attempted coup and Jan 6 terrorist attack. But this is where we are as a nation as many fellow Americans either don’t grasp the threat Trump poses our Republic or embrace Trump because they, too, prefer an autocracy. That is the harsh reality we must all grasp.
With that said, it’s going to be a challenging re-election campaign for Biden given how polarized our nation is. It will be close in state after state. And Trump could win. That, too, is the harsh reality we must all grasp.
For those who want Biden to win in 2024, you can’t ignore the polls but don’t be panicked by them. We have been here before with Obama. We must learn from them. The Biden campaign needs to do their part in terms of campaigning on the key issues and building an effective ground game. The rest of this is up to us, voters.
You're preaching to the choir here. Still freakin' out after reading those polls.
In the same poll this was reported, it is time for Biden to drop out.
A crosstab that caught our eye: When voters were asked who they’d vote for if Biden were not the Democratic nominee, the unnamed generic Democrat defeats Trump by 8 points (48% to 40%), and has the lead in all 6 battleground states. Full crosstabs